The 94th Academy Awards will finally arrive this coming Sunday after what has been one of the longest award seasons ever. Some of these movies, particularly one that has emerged as an Best Picture front-runner, debuted at Sundance all the way back in January of 2021 while others started their campaigns back as early as February of 2020. Either way, the wait is over and we are going to be able to move on with the rest of our lives.
I am predicting most of the awards, but not all. I didn’t see any films nominated for Best International Feature nor did I see any of the Documentaries or Shorts so I skipped those categories. All of the others are represented here. Except for the stupid thing they’re doing through social media. F*** that garbage.
As I’ve done in the past, I am labeling movies that I believe both WILL WIN and films that SHOULD WIN. Obviously the WILL WIN is my prediction (if you’re looking to keep track at home) while the SHOULD WIN is my personal preference or the film that I believe should deserve it.
Alright, let’s go!
Best Visual Effects
Dune — Will Win, Should Win
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Dune is the year’s technical masterpiece. While this could be a way for the Academy to recognize No Way Home, I think this should be Dune in a runaway.
Best Film Editing
Don’t Look Up
Dune — Should Win
King Richard
The Power of the Dog — Will Win
Tick, Tick… Boom!
My confidence here is at a 0. I truly have no clue where this one goes. My best guess is that Don’t Look Up doesn’t win it but, besides that, your guess is as good as mine.
Best Costume Design
Cruella — Should Win
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story — Will Win
As great as the Emmas were, the costume design was the real star of Cruella. I would love to see the Academy recognize the film for it but I think it will end up going to West Side Story in what will likely be one it’s only awards of the night..
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye — Will Win, Should Win
House of Gucci
Cruella and House of Gucci could both be contenders here but the transformation of Jessica Chastain into Tammy Faye Bakker was the single best work of makeup in 2021.
Best Cinematography
Dune — Will Win, Should Win
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
I wouldn’t be upset with a West Side Story win here, and I don’t think it’s out of the question, but you just can’t overlook the work done in Dune.
Best Production Design
Dune — Will Win
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story — Should Win
I think both West Side Story and Nightmare Alley are formidable opponents but I believe this will be another below-the-line award for Dune, as it should be.
Best Sound
Belfast
Dune — Will Win
No Time to Die — Should Win
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
I don’t believe there to be a true front-runner like there was last year with Sound of Metal but I think this will likely be another win for Dune. No Time to Die or West Side Story would also be acceptable winners, in my opinion.
Best Original Song
“Be Alive”, King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas”, Encanto — Should Win
“Down to Joy”, Belfast
“No Time to Die”, No Time to Die — Will Win
“Somehow You Do”, Four Good Days
Fun Fact: The song “No Time to Die” was released over two years ago, in February of 2020. Despite that, it is finally going to get its due with the Academy and will be the first James Bond film to earn a Best Song since “Skyfall” did it in 2012. You also might be surprised to see that the nominee from Encanto isn’t about “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” but, don’t worry, the Academy won’t be able to pass up the opportunity to have the year’s most catchy song played at their ceremony.
Best Original Score
Don’t Look Up
Dune — Will Win, Should Win
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
You’re probably sensing a theme here with some of these “technical” awards.
Best Animated Feature Film
Encanto — Will Win
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines — Should Win
Raya and the Last Dragon
Absolutely not picking against Encanto but Mitchells was my favorite of the two from 2021. Can’t really go wrong either way.
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA — Will Win, Should Win
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
If CODA wins this award, which will likely be handed out fairly early in the night, then it may be setting up good things for the film at the end of the night. I’m still a little iffy that it happens though.
Best Original Screenplay
Belfast — Will Win
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza — Should Win
The Worst Person in the World
I think this is probably a two-horse race between Belfast and Licorice Pizza, both of which would be fine by me. Don’t be surprised by a steal for The Worst Person in the World.
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story — Will Win, Should Win
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
DeBose is a sure thing here and I’m not really sure who else is even in consideration.
Best Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA — Will Win, Should Win
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
This was a two-man race for a while between Kotsur and Smit-McPhee but, aside from the early Golden Globe win for Smit-McPhee, this has been a clean sweep for Kotsur.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye — Will Win
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter — Should Win
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Steward, Spencer
The hardest of the big categories to predict, I have truly no idea who is going to win this. I’m going with Chastain because I feel like she’s picked up the most steam of late but I truly believe that all five nominees are still in-play here. My vote would go to Colman.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard — Will Win, Should Win
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
This has been Will Smith’s award to lose for over a year. Cumberbatch was thought to be a contender but he has yet to gain much traction. I would love for Andrew Garfield to win it but this will be a very well-deserved first Oscar for the Fresh Prince.
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog — Will Win, Should Win
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Campion is a lock for this. Personally, I would love for it to go to Steven Spielberg but I think even he is a distant second. If ANYONE was going to swoop in here and steal it from Campion, I think it could be Hamaguchi (granted I still haven’t watched Drive My Car) but I think those chances are slim to none. I also still can’t get past the Academy snubbing Denis Villeneuve in this category.
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune — Should Win
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog — Will Win
West Side Story
The Power of the Dog has been the clear front-runner for this award for quite some time but slowly but surely there seems to be momentum building for CODA and I am absolutely HERE FOR IT. While I still struggle to see CODA as a true Best Picture winner, I would love nothing more than for it to swoop in and steal this award from The Power of the Dog. I also believe that the Academy’s preferential balloting method (look it up) might give CODA an advantage over its biggest competitor. I guess we’ll see what happens.
The film that I believe SHOULD WIN, however, is Dune. Dune is not only the best film of the year from a technical standpoint, I believe it is the film we will remember most from this crop of nominees.
Lastly, if I were a member of the Academy, this is how my Best Picture ballot would go:
- CODA
- Dune
- Licorice Pizza
- West Side Story
- The Power of the Dog
- Belfast
- King Richard
- Nightmare Alley
- Don’t Look Up
- Drive My Car (Haven’t seen as of release)
