For the first time in quite a while, I have very little interest in the Academy Awards. I’ve already spoken about how much I struggled with the 2020 movie slate and how there just weren’t all that many movies that I fell in love with, so then add on the fact that the ceremony is taking place in LATE APRIL when the year ended almost four whole months ago and… well… let’s just say, I’m over it. But alas, here we are.
The 93rd Academy Awards will take place this Sunday (April 25) and, like many of its award show counterparts, will have a different vibe than usual. Hopefully by giving themselves this long to prepare, we can assume that there will be no technical hiccups and that we’ll have a smoothly run show (HA!).
Like I have done in the past, I will give a SHOULD WIN and a WILL WIN for most of the categories. These distinctions will be based on what I personally believe should win the award and what I think will actually take home the award on Sunday night. If you care about what my predictions and you are keeping track of them at home, obviously those will be the ones marked WILL WIN.
(Editor’s Note: I realized after typing this all out that my head and my heart were pretty in-sync with most of these picks. Very few categories did I have a different WILL WIN and SHOULD WIN but we’re rolling with it anyway.)
Enjoy!
International Feature
Another Round — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
Better Days
Collective
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Quo Vadis, Aida?
Another Round was the only one of the five that I saw but seeing how its director, Thomas Vinterberg, is also a nominee for Best Director, I am pretty confident in saying this is a lock.
Best Song
“Husavik”, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Fight for You”, Judas and the Black Messiah
“Lo Si (Seen)” , The Life Ahead
“Speak Now”, One Night in Miami — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
“Hear My Voice”, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see a song from Eurovision win here but this award will go to “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami. The song was written and performed by one of the film’s stars, Leslie Odom, Jr., who was portraying music legend, Sam Cooke.
Best Score
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul —WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
The hard rock duo of Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (from the band Nine Inch Nails) have a 2/5 shot in taking home their second Academy Award (they won for Best Score in 2010 for The Social Network). In 2020, the duo was responsible for arguably the year’s two best film scores in both Mank and Soul. Soul, however, is the clear favorite to take the title this time around.
Visual Effects
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
This is the category that was likely the most affected by the pandemic as it is usually full of superhero films and major blockbusters. With that being said, Visual Effects is probably Tenet’s most redeeming quality and the only real shot it has to win an award. I loved seeing Love and Monsters and The One and Only Ivan nominated here and Mulan is also a very respectable option too, but the winner is Christopher Nolan’s much-discussed 2020 action flick. HE BLEW UP A G*D DAMN 747!!
Sound
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
The Academy made a change entering this awards season and combined the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories of the past and made just one general Sound award. The award should really be called “The Sound of Metal Award for Sound” because the use of it in the movie is so damn good. The film itself is great but it’s honestly the way they utilize sound (or sometimes the lack thereof) that makes it the Best Picture nominee that it is. Also, thankful that Tenet wasn’t an option here because that movie was an inaudible mess (especially in a movie theater).
Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
Mank
Pinocchio
The Academy loves a good transformation and the one done on Viola Davis to turn her into Ma Rainey is about as good as they come.
Editing
The Father
Nomadland — SHOULD WIN
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal — WILL WIN
The Trial of the Chicago 7
I’m kind of just guessing here. None of these movies really stood out to me as a masterpiece in the editing realm, but I guess that’s what make them well edited? I don’t know but we’ll go with Sound of Metal.
Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
The Trial of the Chicago 7
There is possibly a scenario where this award could go to Mank or News of the World but I think some of the work done in Nomadland is too good to ignore.
Costume Design
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom — WILL WIN
Mank
Mulan — SHOULD WIN
Pinocchio
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is the likely favorite here and I think it deserves the title, but I really liked a lot of the costume work in Mulan.
Production Design
The Father
Mank — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
News of the World
Tenet
Part of me really wants to pick Ma Rainey here again but I think the smart money is on Mank, in what will quite possibly be the film’s only award of the night, despite it receiving the most nominations.
Animated Feature
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun of the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
Wolfwalkers
Not much to argue with here. Soul is the favorite and is very much a lock to win.
Adapted Screenplay
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
The Father — WIILL WIN
Nomadland
One Night in Miami… — SHOULD WIN
The White Tiger
I still have yet to see The Father (or The White Tiger, for that matter) but I think I’ll go with it here though I wouldn’t be shocked if this is another award for Nomadland. For me personally though, I really enjoyed the work done on One Night in Miami. And, I’ll just say it now and get it out in the open, Borat is a legitimate contender here too.
Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
I’ve been pleasantly surprised to see that Emerald Fennell’s work for Promising Young Woman has been recognized by numerous awards bodies during this awards season. Prior to that, I would have said this would be another screenplay award for Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) but that’s just not the case anymore. Though I wouldn’t be shocked if he did win, it looks to me like Fennell will take this award as well.
Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm — SHOULD WIN
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari — WILL WIN
I hate that I’m suggesting that Borat should receive this award over Minari but that’s where we’re at. Yuh-Jung Youn will win the award and I am 100% okay with that but Bakalova was, to me, the one truly wonderful part about the Borat Subsequent Moviefilm experience and I would love to see her get awarded for such.
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami…
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
I’m happy that Stanfield was nominated here but it does make me slightly worried for a vote-split kind of situation for him and Kaluuya. I doubt it matters though because Kaluuya gave one of the year’s best performances and I believe he will be recognized for it. Hopefully they remember to turn on his microphone before he starts to speak.
Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
For most of the awards season, this has been the most difficult category to predict. Davis, Kirby, McDormand, and Mulligan all appeared to be locked for a nomination and seemingly in a four-horse race. Then Andra Day took home the Golden Globe and it suddenly became a five-horse race with no clear frontrunner. As we get closer to Oscar day, I think we can assume that Day and Kirby are out of the picture but between the other three, I’m really not sure. I’ll go with Mulligan though.
Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
This award seems to be down to just two final contenders, Boseman and Hopkins. As I said earlier, The Father is the major film that I have still yet to see so I can’t really comment on Hopkins’ performance (though I’m sure it’s great). However, I just can’t see this award not going to Chadwick Boseman for obvious reasons. Not only did he give probably his greatest performance to date in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but it was also his last.
Best Director
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
David Fincher, Mank
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Another category that I really can’t see going any other way. The other four nominees are deserving to be in the conversation but this is Chloe Zhao’s award to lose.
Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland — WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
While Nomadland wasn’t my favorite film of the year, I am very certain that it was the best of the year. From the way it was shot, to Chloe Zhao’s direction, to the beautiful performance from Frances McDormand, it was all just incredibly well done. Promising Young Woman was my pick for Top Film at the Logeys but I don’t think it deserves the title here. Nomadland should win and will win on Sunday night.
And finally, this is how I would cast my Best Picture ballot if I were a part of the Academy:
- Nomadland
- Minari
- Promising Young Woman
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Mank
- Sound of Metal
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- The Father
